Real Estate Trends & Market News
Realty Outlook provides independent real estate market data news and forecasts for cities in all 50 U.S. States and breaking real estate news for each market.
By tracking leading indicators like building permits, employment data, sales figures, market times, appreciation and depreciation trends you will be able to gauge the real estate cycle of your particular market and whether your area is appreciating or deflating.
Market News is updated by the minute and Market data and reports are updated periodically as local conditions demand. We attempt to reassess all markets on an on-going basis.
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Realty Outlook Predicts Unemployment in U.S. to reach 12%
Realty Outlook estimates that U.S. unemployment rate may reach as high as 12% by 2011. Data from using our job growth and loss projections and a lower-than-usual growth rate (compared to previous recessions) in the adult population looking for work shows a range of 11.5% to as high as 12.5% likely to reach critical mass by early 2011.
One fact to consider that can sometimes be overlooked is that unemployment will rise as long as the economy is growing at less than the rate of adults employed or looking for work,. This has averaged 1.6% per year since 1948 and 1.2% since 1990, but usually grows at a much slower rate during a recession.
Don't believe unemployment can get north of 11%? Well it is already there in some areas, 11.8% in San Bernadino, California and over 14% in Detroit Michigan. Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Charlotte and Sacramento are all north of 10%. The chart below rates the biggest increases in unemployment over the past 4 years.
| Unemployment Rate | |||
| Metro Area | Jan-05 | Jan-09 | Change |
| Riverside-San Bernardino, CA | 5.7% | 11.8% | 6.1% |
| Las Vegas, NV | 4.4% | 10.0% | 5.6% |
| Tampa, FL | 4.4% | 9.7% | 5.3% |
| Charlotte, NC-SC | 5.6% | 10.5% | 4.9% |
| Sacramento, CA | 5.5% | 10.4% | 4.9% |
| Orlando, FL | 4.2% | 9.0% | 4.8% |
| Detroit, MI | 9.4% | 14.2% | 4.8% |
| Los Angeles, CA (MDiv) | 6.1% | 10.8% | 4.7% |
| Oakland, CA (MDiv) | 5.4% | 9.2% | 3.8% |
| Atlanta, GA | 5.2% | 8.7% | 3.5% |
| Raleigh-Cary, NC | 4.5% | 7.9% | 3.4% |
| Portland, OR | 6.5% | 9.8% | 3.3% |
| Nashville, TN | 5.0% | 8.0% | 3.0% |
| St. Louis, MO | 6.4% | 9.1% | 2.7% |
| Indianapolis, IN | 5.4% | 8.0% | 2.6% |
| San Francisco, CA (MDiv) | 4.9% | 7.5% | 2.6% |
| Phoenix, AZ | 4.3% | 6.7% | 2.4% |
| Boston, MA (MDiv) | 4.7% | 6.8% | 2.1% |
| Seattle, WA (MDiv) | 5.0% | 7.1% | 2.1% |
| Miami, FL | 4.8% | 6.8% | 2.0% |
| Washington, D.C. (MDiv) | 3.8% | 5.7% | 1.9% |
| Philadelphia, PA | 5.4% | 7.3% | 1.9% |
| Chicago, IL (MDiv) | 6.5% | 8.2% | 1.7% |
| Denver, CO | 5.8% | 7.4% | 1.6% |
| New York, NY-NJ (MDiv) | 5.8% | 7.3% | 1.5% |
| Austin, TX | 5.0% | 6.4% | 1.4% |
| Dallas, TX (MDiv) | 5.8% | 7.1% | 1.3% |
| Fort Worth, TX (MDiv) | 5.8% | 7.0% | 1.2% |
| San Antonio, TX | 5.6% | 6.3% | 0.7% |
| Houston, TX | 6.0% | 6.5% | 0.5% |
It is not all bad news though as the markets in Texas are holding up remarkably well, below the national average.
4.4 million people also got new jobs in January, and 3 million more openings were available, BLS data show. Those numbers are down sharply from the start of the recession in December 2007 and weren't enough to offset the 4.9 million people who lost or quit their jobs in January. But the jobs data do show some bright spots — expanding industries that promise new, stable career opportunities. Energy, government and healthcare are the industries that have jobs available today
On a positive note suggesting a 12% unemployment rate (in 2011) as the most likely scenario.still means 88% of people will still be gainfully employed, and will probably have had the chance of a lifetime to buy a very inexpensive home while mortgage rates are low.
Report on Stabilization of U.S. Home Prices
According to a report by Radar Logic and the company's RPX Index, which measures trends in the price per square foot of homes in 25 U.S. metro areas, the freefall in house prices that was evident in 2008 has been flatening over the past several months -- but the slowdown in the prices may represent just a step toward recovery. By spring 2010 the data should present "a clear picture of which way the market is moving," Radar Logic reported. Even with some stabilization in home values, caution exist that some markets may see a continuing slide based on a buildup of foreclosure-related inventory and a typical seasonal slowdown in sales activity.
Radar Logic cited sales data from the National Association of Realtors trade group and from another monthly price index, the Standard and Poor's/Case-Shiller price index for 20 U.S. metro areas, as evidence for market improvements -- while noting that the operators of the Case-Shiller index do not believe a deceleration in downward price trends constitutes evidence for a recovery.
There will continue to be downward pressure on prices, Radar Logic states, To view the complete report click here. Even with the some stabilization of home prices inventories of non performing notes and real estate owned by banks continue to rise. Savvy investors are taking advantage of these bulk real estate investment reo portfolios.