Realty Outlook Predicts Unemployment in U.S. to reach 12%
Realty Outlook estimates that U.S. unemployment rate may reach as high as 12% by 2011. Data from using our job growth and loss projections and a lower-than-usual growth rate (compared to previous recessions) in the adult population looking for work shows a range of 11.5% to as high as 12.5% likely to reach critical mass by early 2011.
One fact to consider that can sometimes be overlooked is that unemployment will rise as long as the economy is growing at less than the rate of adults employed or looking for work,. This has averaged 1.6% per year since 1948 and 1.2% since 1990, but usually grows at a much slower rate during a recession.
Don't believe unemployment can get north of 11%? Well it is already there in some areas, 11.8% in San Bernadino, California and over 14% in Detroit Michigan. Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Charlotte and Sacramento are all north of 10%. The chart below rates the biggest increases in unemployment over the past 4 years.
| Unemployment Rate | |||
| Metro Area | Jan-05 | Jan-09 | Change |
| Riverside-San Bernardino, CA | 5.7% | 11.8% | 6.1% |
| Las Vegas, NV | 4.4% | 10.0% | 5.6% |
| Tampa, FL | 4.4% | 9.7% | 5.3% |
| Charlotte, NC-SC | 5.6% | 10.5% | 4.9% |
| Sacramento, CA | 5.5% | 10.4% | 4.9% |
| Orlando, FL | 4.2% | 9.0% | 4.8% |
| Detroit, MI | 9.4% | 14.2% | 4.8% |
| Los Angeles, CA (MDiv) | 6.1% | 10.8% | 4.7% |
| Oakland, CA (MDiv) | 5.4% | 9.2% | 3.8% |
| Atlanta, GA | 5.2% | 8.7% | 3.5% |
| Raleigh-Cary, NC | 4.5% | 7.9% | 3.4% |
| Portland, OR | 6.5% | 9.8% | 3.3% |
| Nashville, TN | 5.0% | 8.0% | 3.0% |
| St. Louis, MO | 6.4% | 9.1% | 2.7% |
| Indianapolis, IN | 5.4% | 8.0% | 2.6% |
| San Francisco, CA (MDiv) | 4.9% | 7.5% | 2.6% |
| Phoenix, AZ | 4.3% | 6.7% | 2.4% |
| Boston, MA (MDiv) | 4.7% | 6.8% | 2.1% |
| Seattle, WA (MDiv) | 5.0% | 7.1% | 2.1% |
| Miami, FL | 4.8% | 6.8% | 2.0% |
| Washington, D.C. (MDiv) | 3.8% | 5.7% | 1.9% |
| Philadelphia, PA | 5.4% | 7.3% | 1.9% |
| Chicago, IL (MDiv) | 6.5% | 8.2% | 1.7% |
| Denver, CO | 5.8% | 7.4% | 1.6% |
| New York, NY-NJ (MDiv) | 5.8% | 7.3% | 1.5% |
| Austin, TX | 5.0% | 6.4% | 1.4% |
| Dallas, TX (MDiv) | 5.8% | 7.1% | 1.3% |
| Fort Worth, TX (MDiv) | 5.8% | 7.0% | 1.2% |
| San Antonio, TX | 5.6% | 6.3% | 0.7% |
| Houston, TX | 6.0% | 6.5% | 0.5% |
It is not all bad news though as the markets in Texas are holding up remarkably well, below the national average.
4.4 million people also got new jobs in January, and 3 million more openings were available, BLS data show. Those numbers are down sharply from the start of the recession in December 2007 and weren't enough to offset the 4.9 million people who lost or quit their jobs in January. But the jobs data do show some bright spots — expanding industries that promise new, stable career opportunities. Energy, government and healthcare are the industries that have jobs available today
On a positive note suggesting a 12% unemployment rate (in 2011) as the most likely scenario.still means 88% of people will still be gainfully employed, and will probably have had the chance of a lifetime to buy a very inexpensive home while mortgage rates are low.
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